DoD & Golden Dome — Company Tracker

Last updated: August 26, 2026  ·  Prices are as of Aug 25, 2026  ·  Research purposes only — not investment advice

Names tracked
26
25 companies across 5 conviction tiers + 1 fund
Top conviction names
KTOS · RKLB
Conviction 9 / 10
Golden Dome in reconciliation
$17.1B
of $17.9B requested; not in appropriations
Next major catalyst
Sep 30, 2026
Current funding expires; clarity comes in December
⚠
Appropriations, the deciding variable: there is no enacted FY2027 defense appropriation and current funding expires September 30, 2026. The House passed a continuing resolution through December 4 on July 21 (220–205); the Senate passed a competing CR through December 11 on August 8 (90–6). The two are unreconciled and the House returns from recess August 31. The defense appropriations bill cleared House committee markup on June 24 but has not reached the floor, and the Senate has taken no action on it. Compounding that, $17.1B of the $17.9B Golden Dome request sits in the reconciliation request rather than in discretionary appropriations, and the House and Senate budget resolutions carry only $60B of the $350B defense mandatory ask. A CR bars new starts and production-rate increases, and the framework CR rule says reduce the speculative bucket. DOD has started 21 of the past 27 fiscal years under a CR or a shutdown. September 30 is when current funding expires, not when FY2027 funding becomes clear: the two stopgaps run to December 4 and December 11, and full-year appropriations land Q1 to Q2 2027.  |  Sector de-rating: defense and space names sit 30–60% below their May 2026 highs while backlogs grew. That tracks the funding-mechanism gap, not deteriorating fundamentals.  |  AMDT3 confirmed: SDA awarded $1.75B for 36 satellites on July 13–14, L3Harris $955M for 18 and Sierra Space $798M for 18, with Intuitive Machines also awarded 18 spacecraft. These are the largest confirmed Golden Dome awards to date.  |  RKLB: the May 8 +34.22% gap-up fired the >15% trim rule and the trim was not taken. RKLB is now $67.53, 55% below its $151.00 52-week high. Neutron first launch in Q4 2026 is the next binary event.
Model allocation — tranche 1, August 25, 2026
BucketNamesWeightFramework target
Core primesLHX, GD, NOC47.4%30–35%
Diversified coreXAR47.9%new sleeve role
Supply chainMP4.7%15–20% enablers
Growth and speculative, via the fundKTOS, KRMN, AVAV, DRS, LUNRheld inside XAR40–45% / 5–10%
Nine names became five. XAR, the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF, holds eight of the old nine names at a combined 19.8%, so owning the fund and the singles together duplicated the position. KTOS 2.65%, KRMN 2.96%, AVAV 2.35%, DRS 1.90% and LUNR 1.73% are still tracked and scored below and are still owned inside the fund; they are simply no longer separate direct names. LHX stays direct because XAR carries it at only 2.39%. GD and NOC stay direct as the dividend anchors, accepting a 3.05% and 2.76% overlap. MP stays direct because XAR does not hold it at all. Staged, not a single purchase. Primes run heavy and speculative runs light on purpose, because of the September 30 funding cliff and the fact that most Golden Dome money still sits in reconciliation rather than appropriations. Tranche 2 waits for the December funding vote, not for September 30, and adds a fourth prime. Tranche 3 waits for a new tax year. Weights only. Position sizes are omitted from this shared copy. Not investment advice. Work with your CPA/advisor before acting.
XAR — the diversified core
TickerFundPrice Aug 25Expense ratioHoldingsAssetsDividend yieldWeightingYTD1-year
XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF$264.850.35%47$6.04B0.31%Modified equal weight+9.98%+22.78%
Overlap with the names tracked here: GD 3.05% · KRMN 2.96% · NOC 2.76% · KTOS 2.65% · LHX 2.39% · AVAV 2.35% · DRS 1.90% · LUNR 1.73%. Those eight sum to 19.8% of the fund, which is what made holding the fund and the singles at the same time redundant. XAR does not hold MP at all, which is why MP Materials stays a direct name and the rare earth supply hedge is not delegated to the fund. The other 39 holdings are breadth the single-name list did not provide. Fund data as of Aug 25, 2026. Not investment advice.
Conviction chart — all tracked companies
Conviction 9 Conviction 8 Conviction 7 Conviction 6 Conviction 5
Conviction scores. KTOS and RKLB score 9. PLTR, LMT, NOC, RTX, LHX and KRMN score 8. AVAV, PSN, DRS, MP, GD, BAH and QNT score 7. LDOS, MRCY, TXT, HEI, SIDU, PDYN and LUNR score 6. RCAT, UMAC and BWXT score 5.
Company tracker
TickerCompanySectorBucketConv.Golden DomeDrone link Price Aug 25Fwd P/E52-wk rangeAnalyst targetBuy target Status / note
XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETFFund / DiversifiedDiversified coren/afund, not scored★★★★☆★★★☆☆ $264.85 n/a0.35% expense ratio —YTD +9.98% · 1-yr +22.78% —47 holdings · $6.04B · modified equal weight Core holdingBought as the diversified core, not on a dip target NEW Tranche 1 · diversified core 0.31% yield · replaces KTOS, KRMN, AVAV, DRS and LUNR as direct names Does not hold MP
KTOSKratos DefenseDronesCore/Growth9★★☆☆☆★★★★★ $52.55 56.8x $43.09–$134.00 $105.62Strong Buy ≤$52~1.0% dip target Tracked and scored · no longer a direct name Held indirectly via XAR at 2.65% of the fund Backlog above $2B, about 72% funded
RKLB ★Rocket LabSpace/LaunchCore/Growth9★★★★☆— $67.53 n/m $37.57–$151.00 $112.94Buy Hold · no addAbout 52x sales vs the 25x growth ceiling Trigger fired May 8 (+34%) >15% gap trim rule still live Trim before the Q4 2026 Neutron launch
PLTRPalantirAI / C2Growth8★★★★★★★☆☆☆ $172.75 92.4x $106.37–$207.52 $191.68Buy ≤$120~30.5% dip target Blocked · 92x forward vs the 20x sales add rule
LMTLockheed MartinSpace PrimeCore Primes8★★★★★★☆☆☆☆ $556.20 18.2x $437.25–$692.00 $632.95Hold ≤$480~13.7% dip target Watchlist · tranche 2 fourth-prime candidate
NOCNorthrop GrummanSpace PrimeCore Primes8★★★★☆★☆☆☆☆ $543.66 18.8x $479.02–$774.00 $647.14Buy ≤$495~9.0% dip target Tranche 1 · direct Direct dividend anchor · 2.76% of XAR overlaps $9.88 dividend, cheapest forward multiple of the three primes · $1B company-funded interceptor program with Apex
RTXRTX (Raytheon)Missile DefenseCore Primes8★★★★★★☆☆☆☆ $209.51 28.4x $150.61–$226.88 $234.82Buy ≤$165~21.2% dip target Watchlist · tranche 2 fourth-prime candidate
LHXL3HarrisSpace / SensorsCore Primes8★★★★☆★☆☆☆☆ $263.35 21.2x $260.95–$379.23 $341.73Buy ≤$280Trades 6.3% under target Tranche 1 · direct Direct: XAR carries LHX at only 2.39% Conviction 7 to 8 · confirmed $955M AMDT3 award for 18 satellites; record $42B backlog
KRMNKarman HoldingsHypersonics / MissileGrowth8★★★☆☆— $51.37 68.8x $43.68–$118.38 $87.10Buy Watch $51.37No direct name; no reset dip target yet Tracked and scored · no longer a direct name Held indirectly via XAR at 2.96% of the fund Q2 record revenue $182.1M up 58.2%; backlog $1.3B up 65% score provisional
AVAVAeroVironmentDronesCore/Growth7★★☆☆☆★★★★★ $148.69 45.9x $135.20–$417.86 $225.77Buy ≤$165Trades 11.0% under target Conviction 9 to 7 · Space Force terminated the SCAR antenna contract in March 2026 Tracked and scored · no longer a direct name Held indirectly via XAR at 2.35% of the fund
PSNParsons CorpAI / SwarmEnablers7★★★☆☆★★☆☆☆ $48.17 14.6x $36.26–$89.50 $59.36Buy ≤$55Trades 14.2% under target Watchlist · 46% below the $89.50 high after the Aug 1 guidance cut
DRSLeonardo DRSC-UASEnablers7★★★☆☆★★★★☆ $38.67 29.1x $32.43–$50.59 $54.10Buy ≤$42Trades 8.6% under target Tracked and scored · no longer a direct name Held indirectly via XAR at 1.90% of the fund SHIELD IDIQ ($151B ceiling)
MPMP MaterialsRare EarthsEnablers7★★☆☆☆★★☆☆☆ $59.54 135.0x $37.81–$100.25 $75.38Strong Buy ≤$52~12.7% dip target Tranche 1 · direct Direct because XAR does not hold MP at all · rare earth supply hedge 10yr DoD supply agreement
GDGeneral DynamicsSpace PrimeCore Primes7★★★★☆★☆☆☆☆ $376.10 21.5x $306.77–$400.00 $420.02Buy ≤$320~14.9% dip target Tranche 1 · direct Direct dividend anchor · 3.05% of XAR overlaps Golden Dome OTA winner · $6.36 dividend, 35 straight years of growth
BAHBooz Allen HamiltonAI / ServicesEnablers7★★★☆☆★★☆☆☆ $74.81 11.9x $59.50–$111.20 $85.58Hold ≤$73~2.4% dip target Watchlist · pairs w/ PLTR · 3.16% div
QNT ★QuantinuumQuantum / C2Speculative7★★★☆☆★☆☆☆☆ $69 verifyAug 13 close; not in the Aug 25 data set — — — ≤$55Dip below the $60 IPO price = entry IPO Jun 4, 2026 at $60 · past event
LDOSLeidosIT / ServicesCore Primes6★★☆☆☆— $135.38 11.2x $98.86–$205.77 $156.60Buy ≤$118~12.8% dip target Ballast · $43B backlog verify
MRCYMercury SystemsEdge ComputeEnablers6★★☆☆☆★★☆☆☆ $110 verifyAug 13 close; not in the Aug 25 data set — — — ≤$100Wait for mgmt execution data Verify mgmt execution first
TXTTextronDronesGrowth6★☆☆☆☆★★★☆☆ $82.13 12.4x $78.12–$101.57 $101.89Buy ≤$65~20.9% dip target Watchlist · FTUAS competition
HEIHEICO CorpComponentsEnablers6★☆☆☆☆★★☆☆☆ $353.69 55.5x $256.11–$376.86 $389.26Buy ≤$305~13.8% dip target Buy on weakness
SIDUSidus SpaceSpaceSpeculative6★★★☆☆— $2.54 verifyAug 13 close; not in the Aug 25 data set — — — ≤$2.00Await first task order Await first task order
PDYNPalladyneAutonomy SWEnablers6★★☆☆☆★★★☆☆ $6.29 verifyAug 13 close; not in the Aug 25 data set — — — ≤$8Below target; need POR confirmation Monitor · need POR confirmation
LUNRIntuitive MachinesSpace / LunarSpeculative6★★★★☆— $16.48 n/m $7.78–$46.75 $29.25Strong Buy Watch $16.48No direct name; no reset dip target yet Tracked and scored · no longer a direct name Held indirectly via XAR at 1.73% of the fund 18 AMDT3 spacecraft awarded · Q2 revenue $206M, record $1.8B backlog H1 FCF −$145.8M · $414M issued score provisional
RCATRed Cat HoldingsDronesSpeculative5—★★★★★ $10 verifyAug 13 close; not in the Aug 25 data set — — — ≤$11Below target; Teal 2 supply watch Supply constrained · Teal 2 watch
UMACUnusual MachinesComponentsSpeculative5—★★★★☆ $27 verifyAug 13 close; not in the Aug 25 data set — — — ≤$5Target far below market; reset needed NDAA compliance moat
BWXTBWX TechnologiesNuclear / SpaceMonitor only5★★☆☆☆— $170 verifyAug 13 close; not in the Aug 25 data set — — — ≤$175Below target; monitor only · 3yr+ Monitor only · 3yr+ horizon
Sizing tiers: Conv. 9 core — largest positions · Conv. 8 primes — significant · Conv. 7 enablers — moderate · Conv. 6 — starter · Speculative — small/capped. Buy targets are thesis-driven support levels, not limit orders, and most were last reset June 9. At Aug 25 prices AVAV, LHX, PSN, DRS, PDYN, RCAT and BWXT trade below target, while PLTR, RTX, TXT, GD, HEI, LMT, LDOS and MP still need a 12% to 31% decline to trigger. UMAC is far above a stale $5 target and needs a reset. KRMN and LUNR show a watch price rather than a dip target because no reset target has been set for them yet. XAR shows its tranche 1 entry price because it is a core holding rather than a dip trade. Tracked is not the same as held. KTOS, KRMN, AVAV, DRS and LUNR keep their conviction scores, buy targets and sizing tiers here because the thesis on each is unchanged and each is still owned indirectly inside XAR. What changed in tranche 1 is that none of them is a separate direct name any more. XAR itself is a fund and carries no conviction score. Prices, forward multiples, 52-week ranges, analyst targets and ratings are August 25, 2026 intraday quotes from stockanalysis.com. Rows marked verify are not in that data set and still carry their Aug 13 close. Verify against your broker quotes before ordering. Data as of Aug 25, 2026. Not investment advice. Verify with your advisor before acting.
Catalyst timeline
September 30, 2026 — Current federal funding expires
This is an expiry date, not a clarity date. No FY2027 defense appropriation is enacted, and absent a reconciled CR or a full-year bill, funding lapses. A CR bars new starts and production-rate increases, which is exactly what the Golden Dome programs need. The House returns from recess August 31, leaving about four weeks of floor time. What September 30 does not do is tell anyone what FY2027 funding looks like: the two stopgaps run to December 4 and December 11, and full-year appropriations land Q1 to Q2 2027.
Now through September 30, 2026 — House and Senate CRs unreconciled
The House passed a CR through December 4 on July 21 (220–205). The Senate passed a competing CR through December 11 on August 8 (90–6). Neither chamber has moved to conference. The FY2027 defense appropriations bill cleared House committee markup on June 24 but has not passed the floor, and the Senate has taken no action on it. Framework rule: a CR means reduce the speculative bucket; a shutdown longer than two weeks means reduce exposure across the board.
Unresolved — Golden Dome money sits in reconciliation, not appropriations
Of the $17.9B requested, $17.1B is in the reconciliation request rather than in discretionary appropriations. The administration asked for $350B of defense mandatory funds via reconciliation; the House and Senate budget resolutions carry only $60B. Space Force leadership has warned that a lack of FY2027 funding would stall further development. This gap, not fundamentals, is what the 30–60% sector de-rating is pricing.
Q4 2026 — Neutron first launch (RKLB binary event)
Success re-rates the only credible Falcon 9 competitor. Failure carries 20–30% correction risk. RKLB trades at about 52x sales on $769.15M of TTM revenue against the framework 25x ceiling for growth names, which is why the framework takes no add here. Reassess sizing before the launch window opens.
December 2026 — The December funding vote and the FY2027 NDAA
The decision point the sleeve is actually waiting on. The House CR expires December 4 and the Senate CR December 11, so the next real funding vote lands in that window alongside FY2027 NDAA authorization. Note that authorization is not appropriation: the NDAA sets policy and ceilings, it does not release dollars. Tranche 2 is sized after this vote, not after September 30. The vote is binary, which is the case for holding a 47-name fund as the diversified core rather than a handful of small single names.
Q1–Q2 2027 — FY2027 full-year appropriations
Where FY2027 funding finally becomes clear, actual contract dollars begin flowing and the production ramp activates. Tranche 3 of the reallocation is timed to January 2027, a new tax year, with the NVDA trim as the natural funding source.

Personal research — not investment advice  ·  Data as of Aug 25, 2026  ·  View Investment Framework →